Tag: Forecasting
-
Failure of Imagination
Failure of imagination describes the inability to foresee major risks or opportunities due to cognitive blind spots and conventional thinking, as highlighted by the 9/11 Commission. It applies to events like Pearl Harbor and the 2008 crisis, spanning security, business, and social contexts. Mitigation involves scenario planning, diverse perspectives, and historical learning.
-
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis quantifies the impact of variable changes on a specific outcome within a model. Employed across various disciplines, it aids in risk assessment, model validation, and decision-making, offering metrics to represent sensitivity.