Tag: Predictive Modeling
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As-If
Originating from the works of philosopher Hans Vaihinger, the “As-If” approach facilitates the analysis of complex systems using hypothetical scenarios. This methodology, while not always reflecting true conditions, aids in rendering intricate concepts more comprehensible.
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Lindy Effect
Originating from patterns noted at Lindy’s restaurant in New York, the Lindy Effect theorizes that the future lifespan of enduring entities, such as ideas, correlates with their current age. This concept offers a perspective on understanding persistence across various domains, from literature to technology.
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Adding Epicycles
In scientific modeling, adding epicycles refers to augmenting a model’s structure to accommodate unexplained data. This practice, which has its roots in ancient geocentric theories of astronomy, often compromises both the model’s simplicity and its predictive accuracy.
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Monte Carlo Simulation
Utilizing statistical sampling, Monte Carlo Simulation offers insights into risk and uncertainty within predictive models. By generating a spectrum of outcomes from random inputs, it finds applications in fields like finance and engineering. Its precision is contingent on the accuracy of the underlying model and inputs.